Romney Edges Obama in National Monmouth Poll

October 19, 2012
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By the Monmouth Polling Institute

The latest Monmouth University Poll of likely voters in this year’s national presidential race, taken after the first presidential debate but before the second, shows Mitt Romney with a nominal, but statistically insignificant, one point lead over Barack Obama.

As a result of the first presidential debate, more U.S. voters feel they now have a better sense of the GOP challenger’s plans for the country and give him the edge on key issues.

The poll showed Gov. Romney leads the incumbent by 47 percent to 46 percent among likely American voters. This marks a reversal of the 3-point edge President Obama held in the Monmouth University Poll one month ago.  If all registered voters cast ballots, President Obama would cling to a tenuous lead of 46 percent to 43 percent. The poll found older voters to be a key demographic that has shifted toward the Republican nominee. Romney now claims a 52 percent to 44 percent advantage among likely voters age 55 and older. In September, this group was split at 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.

“There is no question that the electorate is extremely volatile. Many of the polling shifts we see now are within the margin of error and reflect just how close this race is,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, adding, “There is no doubt that the candidates’ performances in the first debate changed the underlying dynamic of this race, benefitting Mitt Romney across the board.”

Nearly 6-in-10 likely voters (58 percent) report watching the entire first debate and another 25 percent watched clips or parts of it. Only 7 percent of likely voters say they heard nothing at all about the debate. Just 9 percent of likely voters report that the debate caused them to have a change of heart about which candidate they would support. Among this group, 73 percent now declare themselves for Romney to just 18 percent for Obama. Although this group is small, this shift could represent a net 4- to 5-point swing toward the GOP nominee in the voter preference margin.

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Importantly, nearly 6 in-10 voters feel they now know more about Mitt Romney’s plans for the country as a result of the debate, including 27 percent who know a lot more and 30 percent a little more. By comparison, less than 4-in-10 say the same about Barack Obama’s plans – 17 percent feel they know a lot more and 21 percent know a little more.

Mitt Romney now bests Barack Obama on some key issue areas. The GOP nominee is now more trusted to handle the economy and jobs by a 49 percent to 45 percent margin. One month ago, Obama had a 48 percent to 45 percent edge on this issue. Romney also has the edge over Obama on the federal budget and national debt by 48 percent to 44 percent compared to an evenly divided voter opinion of 47 percent to 47 percent in September.

The challenger has also erased the incumbent’s earlier advantage on entitlements and foreign policy. Regarding Social Security and Medicare, 46 percent of likely voters trust Obama more to a similar 45 percent for Romney. In September, Obama claimed a clear 50 percent to 42 percent advantage on this issue area. When it comes to foreign policy, 47 percent choose Obama to 45 percent for Romney, which is a marked change from Obama’s 51 percent to 42 percent edge just one month ago.

It appears that the gain in issue advantage also translates to improved personal ratings for Romney. Just under half (46 percent) of likely voters now have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard-bearer compared to 39 percent who have an unfavorable view. One month ago, Romney’s rating was split at just 41 percent positive to 40 percent negative. Obama’s rating, by comparison, is little changed from a month ago. He now gets a 46 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable split decision. In September, this stood at 46 percent positive to 43 percent negative.

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“This election is far from over, but it’s hard to deny that Mitt Romney has made gains in practically every area. This is likely to heighten voter interest in the upcoming debates, starting with tonight’s vice presidential face-off,” said Murray.


The latest Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with 1,360 likely voters in the United States from Oct. 8 to 10, 2012.  This sample has a margin of error of + 2.7 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch.

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