10/17 – Monmouth University Poll Gets It Right in NJ Senate Race

October 17, 2013
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WEST LONG BRANCH – The Monmouth University Poll correctly forecast the margin of victory in New Jersey’s special U.S. Senate election.

An Oct. 14 survey of likely voters by the Monmouth University Polling Institute showed Democrat Cory Booker with 52 percent support and Republican Steve Lonegan with 42 percent. Other candidates garnered 2 percent of the vote, while 4 percent of voters were undecided.

That survey’s predicted victory margin of 10 points was nearly identical to the 10.3 percentage point margin recorded in the actual balloting. With 99 percent of districts counted on election night, Booker won with 54.6 percent of the vote to 44.3 percent for Lonegan.

“This was obviously one of the most difficult races to poll since there is no precedent for New Jersey holding a statewide special election, let alone one on a Wednesday in October,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “Voter turnout was even smaller than the historically low levels we had already anticipated, but the poll’s underlying vote history turnout model proved to be accurate.”

The independent Monmouth University Polling Institute conducts regular surveys of both the nation and New Jersey.  It has also conducted election surveys in New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, South Carolina and Florida.

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