By Stephen Appezzato
Communities across the country are experiencing alarming rates of food inflation. The Two River area is no exception.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, food prices on average rose 10.4% in 2022 from the previous year. While rates of price increases are slowly declining, it is anticipated food inflation will continue throughout 2023.
“Food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than in 2022, but still at above historical average rates. In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase between 3.5 and 4.5 percent,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported in its most recent food price outlook report.
For local grocers and restaurants, the current food market poses difficult challenges, including decreasing margins, high ingredient costs and expensive fuel charges.
“There are so many components to this one (food issue),” said Lauren Coutu, the chief operating officer of McLoone’s Restaurants. Coutu has been with the company for 17 years and said she has never witnessed such food inflation during her tenure in the industry.
“I think most of the population thinks it’s just because of hiked fuel costs and recession and war and Russia and yes, all these things are factors,” Coutu said.
“But then you have all these other factors, right? You have heat waves and droughts that we have never seen, worse than last year, coupled with a bird flu that is taking out something like 50 million birds in this country, so then you have all your poultry up and your dairy as well,” she explained.
All of these factors can really hurt the bottom line. “The restaurant business, similar to the grocery business, runs on very narrow margins,” Coutu said.
While food prices across the board increased in 2022 due to fuel and transportation costs and climate issues, the egg and poultry markets were hit particularly hard by the ongoing bird flu outbreak, causing prices to skyrocket.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), commonly known as avian flu, is a virus which is transmitted primarily among birds through saliva, droppings, bird-to-bird contact and surface contamination. The virus affects both wild and domestic birds and is particularly deadly for the latter. While rare, HPAI can also infect other animals and humans.
Avian flu is not a new threat in the United States, but this outbreak, recognized as the deadliest reported HPAI outbreak in history, has proven particularly alarming. The current H5N1 strain has been documented in 47 states, including four outbreaks in New Jersey, one occurring in Monmouth County. “I don’t think we’ve ever seen anything like this,” said Coutu. “We know from environmental and all sorts of government agencies that there’s been no bird flu ever like this before, and now it’s threatening to go all through the spring. They haven’t been able to combat it like they have in other years.”
To date, the virus has killed more than 57 million birds, many of which were egg-laying hens. As a result, egg and poultry meat production has declined, causing prices to rise.
“I would say it was probably this time last year that we really started to see (prices) climb. Again, the bird flu started in 2021 and has continued to go on, so that’s why we’re feeling it now and will feel it for two more years, because of production,” Coutu explained.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, egg prices rose on average 49% in 2022. That number is predicted to remain high due to the massive loss of egg-laying hens from the outbreak.
To combat the avian flu outbreak, the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has cautioned farmers by distributing information about the virus as well as steps that can be taken to prevent new outbreaks. According to the information, farmers should engage in biosecurity measures to maintain healthy flocks, through disinfecting personnel, clothing, facilities and equipment, limiting farm visitors (especially those that contact other poultry farms), and preventing wild birds and animals from entering their premises.
Even if the spread of avian flu is quelled, the lasting impact of this outbreak on egg and poultry prices will be felt for months to come.
The article originally appeared in the January 26 – February 1, 2023 print edition of The Two River Times.
