Trump’s Sway Felt In Monmouth County

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By John Burton 

The election of Donald J. Trump for U.S. President may defy what the prognosticators expected on the national level and maybe in New Jersey. But that political bombshell likely had a ripple effect in Monmouth County for down-ballot candidates.

Republican presidential candidate Trump, despite even the most up-to-date polling, did remarkably well here in Monmouth County on Election Day. He won 165,305 votes, 52.51 percent, as opposed to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s showing of 135,825, or 43.14 percent, according to the unofficial numbers made available by the Monmouth County Clerk’s Office as of Wednesday afternoon.

By contrast New Jersey overall went for Clinton with 54.8 percent of the vote, with Trump winning 41.9 percent.

That 30,000-plus vote lead is the largest showing for a GOP presidential candidate in the county for 32 years, said Vin Gopal, Monmouth County Democratic Committee chair.

“That is just very difficult to overcome,” for the county organization looking to keep its opposition candidate competitive, said Gopal, who acknowledged he was taken aback by the GOP candidate’s strong numbers.

“Presidential cycles are usually favorable for Democrats,” with the larger voter turnout it attracts, maybe not necessarily contributing to winning county- or local races, but to seeing bigger vote totals, Gopal said. This year, however, the turnout not only benefitted the top of the ticket, but Republican county candidates – admittedly all incumbents – had strong showings. The Republicans retained the two seats available on the county Board of Chosen Freeholders, and sheriff and surrogate offices.

This year, “The voting patterns in Monmouth County caught us all off guard,” conceded Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, West Long Branch. The institute’s last poll had Trump trailing Clinton, with Clinton coattails helping Democrats in the county races.

“It was an odd election,” all the way around, Murray acknowledged and will have pollsters doing some head scratching and analysis on their strategies.

In Monmouth County “Republicans probably did really well getting out the vote,” Murray suspected as one contributing factor.

“I know for us the ground game made a big difference,” with volunteers for the get-out-the-vote efforts and the “tens of thousands of doors we knocked, the phone calls,” said Shaun Golden, Monmouth County Republican Committee chairman who also won re-election as county sheriff. “I certainly think that helped out.”

But the writing was on the wall before Nov. 8.

Political scientist and public policy analyst Ingrid Reed, former director of the New Jersey Project at the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University, said it became apparent that Trump would likely surprise everyone on how well he would do in New Jersey. Reed pointed to the GOP primary in June. By that primary Trump was the last man standing in the race for the party nomination; yet, about 40 percent of those who identify as Republicans bothered to come out for that vote. “One thing that struck me,” she said, “was how there was a faithful group of Republican voters who were determined to vote for Trump.”

“That is a big number,” Reed said.

On Tuesday they came out, in a higher than average voter turnout, according to Reed. And that number, she continued, reflects how “He (Trump) managed to energize Republicans plus people who are disaffected for whatever reason.”

Like elsewhere, that became apparent Tuesday night. “In New Jersey there were people upset about the status quo,” Reed explained, “and this election gave them an opportunity to vent.”

Murray agreed, noting that while polling on all levels proved to be unreliable and flat out wrong, “The one thing they had in common is a significant portion of the public feel their way of life is under threat and they blame the political establishment for that.”

It wasn’t all bad news for Democrats, though, Gopal stressed, pointing to winning local elections around the county, including mayor’s races. And given the reality of the situation, “I think the whole country is rooting for President-elect Trump today,” Gopal said. “I know Democrats are, too.”

 

 Ingrid Reed’s prior position was corrected in the online version of this article.