By Elizabeth Wulfhorst
Monmouth County began seeing an uptick in COVID-19 cases in late February and forecasting models from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show cases remaining high for the next few weeks.
Andrew Lee, M.D., chief of infection control at Monmouth Medical Center and an infectious disease specialist in private practice with ID Care in Oakhurst, said the rise in cases is concerning. And even though deaths have decreased, hospitalizations are up almost 20 percent.
“It’s not really trending down,” Lee said. “Since probably mid-November the cases have been high” and hospitalizations have been steady.
The CDC currently lists Monmouth County as “high” for the level of community transmission. More concerning for Lee is the age of patients he is seeing.
“For the past three, four weeks we’re seeing more younger patients getting admitted with shortness of breath – in their 40s to early 60s – and seeing less older patients now that they’re vaccinated,” Lee said.
While the 14-day average shows a 3 percent decrease in cases, the high test positivity average over the same period is worrisome. At 11 percent, the rate suggests cases are being undercounted.
Monmouth County Commissioner Deputy Director Sue Kiley, liaison to the county health department, thinks there could potential- ly be an additional explanation for the high positive test results: multiple tests being administered to the same person over the course of their infection in an attempt to determine when they are no longer positive.
“I think there’s a lot more testing going on of people that are positive that are waiting anxiously to be over it enough to go back to their normal lives,” Kiley said. She explained that test results aren’t recorded by name so there is no way of knowing how many times a person who tested positive once is getting retested before getting a negative result.
“I really have to believe that this is not a spike as drastically as the numbers are indicating. It’s more a spike in positive people getting retested,” she said.
According to the latest from the CDC Data Tracker, a little over 20 percent of Monmouth County residents are fully vaccinated, a total of 128,473 as of April 6.
Lee is hoping to see cases drop as more people get vaccinated.
“What’s interesting is that, when I see patients now, we’re not really seeing vaccinated patients. It’s all patients who are not vaccinated,” he said.
Lee urged ever yone to get vaccinated as soon as possible.
“If you’re eligible to get the vaccine, you need to get vaccinated. I’m seeing patients in the hospital who obviously qualified to get the vaccine but they just didn’t want it. And they told me that they didn’t think it (COVID-19) would affect them. And now they’re in the hospital,” Lee said.
He noted that getting vaccinated isn’t just about making sure you don’t get COVID-19.
“Everybody who qualifies needs to get vaccinated to protect themselves and their family members, because you might not be severely sick but you might get your parents sick and they might pass away.”
Lee also said he is worried the county will soon see the ramifications of Easter and spring break celebrations.
“I’m concerned because a lot of the spring breakers are probably coming back from Florida to New Jersey now. And I’ve had a few patients from Florida who had COVID get admitted to the hospital already. So I am concerned,” he said.
Kiley and Lee also both noted the increase in certain variants in the state. Lee said specimens they have sent to the state for testing have come back showing variants are present in Monmouth County. Some of these variants are “highly transmissible,” Lee said, and can make patients sicker. Kiley said they are watching this “very closely” and noted there is no indication the variants are resistant to current vaccines.
While cases are still high, both Lee and Kiley said there are simple, common-sense ways to protect yourself and others.
Lee said, even vaccinated, he is always cautious of going into a crowded place, saying he would avoid a crowded restaurant or bar.
“You have to protect yourself,” he said. “Hand hygiene is always important and wear a mask.”
Kiley said the state is looking into the increased number of cases, “trying to figure out what’s happening.” But, she said, until there is a definitive answer, “the best advice that we can give to our residents is to continue to be diligent and to “know thyself.”
“If you’re sick, don’t go out; get a test. If you don’t feel well, don’t assume it’s hay fever; get a test,” Kiley said.
She also said she has noticed people getting lackadaisical about preventative measures we know work. “I would still tell people out and about, you have to have your mask on. You have to still social distance and you’ve got to wash your hands. Those are the best ways to avoid getting sick.”
This article originally appeared in the April 8 – 14, 2021, print edition of The Two River Times.
